MLB Friday player props: 3 hitters worth backing


Those who followed me through the NHL season know I loved - and excelled - betting shot props.

My favorite market to attack in MLB is total bases. Let's look at a few options that stand out on Friday night.

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+115)

I love Schwarber in this spot. Josiah Gray has electric stuff and can strike out batters in bunches, but he's quite erratic and tends to allow a lot of damage along the way - especially to lefties.

Gray has allowed a .352 xwOBA to left-handed batters this season, compared to a .282 xwOBA against righties. He has also conceded six more homers to lefties, which is saying something considering many more hitters in MLB are right-handed.

A lefty like Schwarber profiles much better against Gray. It just so happens that Schwarber also excels against what Gray throws most.

Well over 40% of Gray's pitches are four-seam fastballs. Schwarber owns a .380 wOBA, .567 SLG%, and a whopping 57% hard hit rate against four-seamers this season.

Schwarber likely only needs one healthy swing to get there.

Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases (-140)

Judge is an absolute monster. While he's at his best against fastballs, he can take whatever comes his way and turn it into gold.

Dakota Hudson has pitched much worse than his counting numbers suggest; his FIP is more than two runs higher than his ERA over the last month. He's a prime candidate for regression.

Nobody on the Yankees - or perhaps the entire league - is as likely to give it to him as Judge.

Hudson is a somewhat rare pitcher in that a sinker is his primary pitch. That's not going to throw Judge off one bit. In fact, he's one of MLB's best hitters against sinkers. Judge owns a ridiculous .450 wOBA and 60% hard-hit rate against them this season.

Look for him to lead the charge offensively tonight.

Ketel Marte over 1.5 bases (+110)

Last but not least, we're going to Arizona with Marte. He's going up against a unique pitcher in German Marquez, who throws four different pitches at least 20% of the time.

Clearly, Marquez doesn't rely on one specific pitch. He tries to keep hitters off balance by mixing it up.

That's not going to bother Marte, who's an above-average hitter against almost everything.

Slider aside, Marte fares well against all of Marquez's most frequent pitches. He owns a .366 wOBA against fastballs, a .378 wOBA against curveballs, and a .455 wOBA against sinkers.

Marte has also fared better than every other regular player on the Diamondbacks against right-handed pitchers at home.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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